Mobile marketing is going to become a mass channel in 2009, helped along by the recession — and marketers would do good by getting into it while it's still new, advises Marc Fleishhacker, managing director for Ogilvy, New York.

The firm has published a little somethin' called "21 Ogilvy Solutions," suggestions for
clients who want, no, NEED, to get the best performance
of their marketing budgets. It's part of a larger help section in their Nov' 08-launched site called Ogilvy on Recession.

Why mobile, though?

The level of saturation
in the marketplace in terms of handset distribution, with the younger
generation who are ready adopters of mobile getting older every year,
is driving up the food chain, said Fleishhacker. Some 57% of the U.S. population is texting on a
regular basis and there is 100 to 110 year-on-year growth in the SMS channel, he added.

Mobile advertising now is a relatively cheap, so why not start using it as a channel, he said. Measurement and analytics tools are better now than they were in past recessions, so you'll get better feedback on your campaigns.

FYI, Google added the ability to see how many of your site visitors are coming from iPhones — a metric that may not seem so key for short-sighted people, but could hold some serious weight in the future. Thinking of introducing an iPhone app for your brand? Might want to see if your customers or demographic are using them to access your site first.

Instructions from the Analytics blog: Click on the drop down menu at
the top right of any report next to the text "Advanced Segments", and
select "Visits from iPhones" in the list of default segments. (They suggest turning off "All Visits" when viewing the iPhone segment if the percentage is relatively small, for better visualization.)

Also, If you've got an AdWords campaign going, you can the new iPhone and high-end mobile targeting feature, Google said.

Though the online ad market is still growing, with the IAB reporting the first half of '08 growing 15.2% over the same period last year, it's not growing in the "widely awesome" way that it did before, Adotas reports.

It's a good time to be a focused premium vertical ad network with a relatively variable cost structure and a reliable infrastructure that scales up or down, depending on how sales go every month. The overall climate will not likely cool off the launching of new networks, despite a more difficult fund-raising environment.

Yes, funding is limited, and layoffs are pending. Last week the Sequoia-backed AdBrite – in a move to make the ad network cash flow positive and profitable – laid off 40 employees (40% of its total staff) TechCrunch reported.

But wait, what's this here? Mobile ad network AdMob just nabbed $15.7 million in third round funding from – you guessed it – Sequoia's Capital Growth Fund (plus Accel Partners). The two-year old network served 4.5 billion ads across 6,000 mobile sites in November, writes MarketingVOX.

Apparently, it's all about your name. Next time you're thinking, hmm, what can I add on to the word "Ad" that will create a wildly successfull company? Pick abbreviation over trendy mispellings. You won't regret it.

Just about anybody can write an iPhone app or design an ad that will look great on its ginormous screen. But what about the millions of people who want nifty doodads on their "mass market" phone, and access the internet every day on a teeny weeny screen with old-fashioned number touchpads?

This broader group is the one that marketers and advertisers should be thinking about, writes Lai Kok Fung on Adotas. We have to face the fact that even though we have an iPhone, many of our friends and colleagues have an iPhone, and we are convinced that all of God’s children probably should have an iPhone, the fact of the matter is that not everybody has one. Wait, really? Yes.

So bone up and realize that while owning an iPhone may make you a better/cooler/more distracted person, it does not necessarily mean you – or anyone else – are more affected by ads.

So says Fung:

…[M]obile advertising is just as effective on smaller, more mainstream “mass market” phones. In spite of the apparent disadvantages to advertising on devices with smaller, more compact displays, the adage that it’s not the number of advertisements but the effectiveness of the advertisement that matters is especially true with the mobile medium.

It’s also true that the size of the ad matters much less on the mobile screen than with other media, rendering the idea that advertising is better or more effective on the iPhone a questionable proposition at best.

Questionable, indeed – like the crab salad you just had for lunch.

So, considering that worldwide mobile Internet usage is growing so fast – expected to nearly double the 2006 rate to reach 546 million users and surpass 1.5 billion users in 2012 (according to the IDC) it certainly makes sense to listen to Fung and start making ads for the masses, giving in to the sheer scale of non-smartphone users. Just let it. Go.

And let somebody else pay too much to get too little in return.

So, Obama has chosen Sen.
Joe Biden as his running mate – and told the world about it via text message,
three million, actually, according to estimates from the Wall Street Journal.

An interesting calculation,
done by Silicon Alley Insider: if Obama spent between 5-10 cents per message,
that means he spent somewhere between $1.3 and $1.8 million to send it out. Why
would you do that? Is it a final door slamming on Clinton, as a rebuttal to her
controversial 3am "phone call" ad campaign (the text was sent at 3am
on Friday). Or as a way to snub the media – who got a hold of the news anyway,
but certainly not through official channels.

Or did he feel the need to
support the wireless industry, who doubtless were the ones who profited the
most from the deal? If you’re trying to get behind the "little guy,"
Obama, stop giving your money to AT&T and Verizon.

Whatever it is, it reminds
us of the power of new media for this election. Imagine getting a text saying "VOTE!"
on election day. And knowing, too, that those who sign up to receive campaign
updates are likely to be more gung-ho than the next guy, he’s tapping into a
great word-of-mouth resource: the Young. the politically Passionate. the
Digitally Connected.

I would just have loved to
see the look on the face of whoever actually texted in the word "Biden"
- according to T9, the man is "Aged." Don’t they mean,
"Mature?"

Blow me down, Moses, the new iPhone IS here. And, depending on who you are: current iPhone owner, Apple shareholder, or the anti-AT&T activist, your reaction could be anywhere from

–slightly pissed

–self-congratulatory & smug, or

–that’s it, i’m moving to Canada. (Though, our friendly northern neighbor is no longer an artful escape from Americana.)

Let’s break it down, shall we?

Here is what the new iPhone will bring to our media-hungry souls:

• The long-awaited high speed "3G" wireless internet connection. Music to the ears of online marketers who sat up at night designing mobile phone interfaces, websites, and media campaigns, hoping fervently that someone, somewhere, would love them for this.

• GPS technology, seamlessly integrated with Google Maps, so you can always know exactly where you are, and where you are going. (Putting quite a dent in the GPS market.)

• 3rd party apps that are really going to change the face of the game. One, for example, would help you locate your friends in a crowded concert. But can you imagine what this opens us up to? Stalkers R’ Us. And Annoyances R’ Ss. Remember what happened with Facebook? For the last time, dear friends, I DO NOT WANT TO KNOW WHICH SEX AND THE CITY CHARACTER I MOST RESEMBLE. Or hug a green plant, or donate $1 to the save-the-plastic-bag foundation.

*Note also that Mobile applications for the new iPhone are going to set a whole new bar for mobile advertising. Current growth rates for integrated media use on cell phones will explode, as they’ve started to do on the global level already, and there will be even more platforms for advertisers to explore as they begin to really reach this huge new audience.

• Integration and synchronization of work email, contacts, and other information to the iPhone’s memory. I already can name one CEO whose life this is going to improve. Or rather, the life of the person who heroically attempts to organize his life for him. (Do you think he might get her a pretty new iPhone as a thank-you gift?)

• Cheaper sticker prices – $199 for the 8GB model, $299 for 16GB – mm, just the right chunk of your federal income tax rebate.

So, these are all the pluses. What is the downside? Is there one?

How about all the poor little iPhone "1.0" owners. Aren’t they going to be foaming-at-the-mouth jealous? (If you were unfortunate enough to have bought one in the past week, though, you can totally return it. Whew.)

Also, the lower sticker price comes from somewhere: AT&T, which has raised its data plan fees from $20/mo extra to $30, which over the course of the two-year contract is – you guessed it – a bit more than the $200 "discounted" price of the new model. Clever girl.

Social networks are on the move…to our cell phones, reports the New York Times. They astutely note that there are 3.3 billion cellphone subscribers, which is way more than the total number of Internet users, and way, way more than the number of online social networkers. That all adds up to a pretty penny, once monetized.(Ah, but how, they ask. That comes later.)

Let’s talk about what separates the two – the glaring difference – mobility. For countries with low Internet penetration, a mobile phone is often the only way to get online, so access to social networks is of course going to be through them – which is where mobile-friendly interfaces are going to come into play. But there’s something else that mobile has going for it that PC’s don’t: you’ve got it with you. (Nearly) all the time. And, due to GPS and related technologies, it knows where you are – which means your friends will too.

Is this really something that we want? I have a hard enough time hiding from people – my little white lies are really going to suffer in credibility if someone can tell exactly where I am. "Um, I can’t come tonight, I’m staying late at work." "Oh really? Are you working at Dragon Bar these days?" Caught.

Like it or not, cell phone social networks are arriving. With about 30 startups, like GyPSii from Amsterdam and MyGamma in Singapore, battling to grab market share and introduce new technologies, it’ll happen sooner rather than later.

And what a market share it is and will be, according to market research company Informa Telecoms: about 50 million
people, or about 2.3%of all mobile users, already use the
cellphone for social networking, from chat services to multimedia
sharing, and the penetration rate would mushroom
to at least 12.5% in 5 years.

Mobile marketing is here. Oh, wait, I’ve already said this. Many times. But last week when Yahoo and T-Mobile announced their partnership that would bring ads to UK cell phones it sort of became more of a reality. This doesn’t scare Google in the least, because T-Mobile uses them for mobile search. More importantly, Yahoo is still the loser in the Internet game, cutting thousands of jobs in an effort to stay competitive i.e. not sink into the muck of third-tier Internet portals.

But I don’t want to talk about losers. I want to talk about winners! YEAH! bring it on! and on!

We now know that mobile marketing will be as popular among marketers as a Kirsten Dunst lookalike in Vientiane. Though, unlike this phenonemon, there’s bound to be some haters. Imagine the possibilities of reaching consumers anywhere and everywhere they go. Walking, talking, looking at ads. Fabulous.

But telephone advertising is not just limited to mobile. The latest in TALK technology in VoIP systems is in-call marketing. Someone making a call to, say, Chicago, might hear an ad for flights to O’Hare as they waiting to be connected. Will this piss people off? Answer: yes, unless you offer something in return, like free calls. Oh, they’re already "free" – this is just the long-expected effort to monetize these services. I should have known.

Here come the doubters: Angela Steele, mobile marketing vice president at ad buyer Starcom
USA. "The first question I would have is how is privacy being handled," she said. "People need to know that by using the service, that information
can be used for advertising." Yes, yes, be clear about it, people.

It’s nearly time for mobile marketing to bust out onto the advertising field with all the energy of a sidelined football (sorry: soccer) player. So much promise. Such talent.

As Fortune’s Techland blog relates, "estimates of mobile advertising revenues have often turned out to be
overblown, but that doesn’t mean the industry isn’t making headway." Some big players in the online ad biz made mobile ad-related purchases, and 2008 may prove to be the year in which these acquisitions play out. Let the young blood battle it out, while the seasoned players sit back and enjoy the show.

And what a show it’s going to be. Web analysts predict that overall mobile ad spending will cross the $1 billion
threshold for the first time, generating $1.55 billion in revenue in 2008. For comparison’s sake, I’ll tell you that it was a mere $878 million last year.

But there are challenges. The Boston Globe has an article on mobile advertising still being in the ‘tryout stages,’ and quotes Multimedia Intelligence CSO Rick Sizemore (I’m not even going to talk about this last name. It’s just too fantastic. A mouse pad tagline in the making.) as saying,  "It’s the Wild, Wild West right now. This is an interesting and compelling vehicle, but they don’t
necessarily know who to work with. There are so many options out there
– a lot of hype with no substance, and then a couple of gems."

Gems, my eye. Asia may be the only real gem right now in their use of QR code for special promotions. But the Oregonian ski bums & bunnies may not be too far off.

I just got a new mp3 player. It is small, it is sharp, and I can do things on it that they would never have dreamed of in 1985. (I know, this is not really an impressive claim.) I also know that you don’t care about other people’s new gadgets – unless it is a product that you yourself are thinking of buying, and then you’ll read about a trillion reviews of it before you purchase. Or at least 1 in 4 of you will.

But let me tell you of one of the key features on this little guy that many of you all-in-one-rs out there might relate to. It’s the text reader. When I first saw it, I was like, oh cool. I can read stuff on-the-go. Granted, you’re not going to be poring over a 12-page brief on a tiny little screen, or read Baudolino in 100-word spurts. Or are you?

Amazon, not willing to give in to the Sony Reader, or the countless other gadgets out there with text capabilities, has come out with a $399 Kindle — a replacement for that long-honored but perhaps tired item, The Book. "Books are the last bastion of analog," declared  Amazon’s Jeff Kozos to a Newsweek reporter. The article, which explores the concept of making long-form reading truly digital. A debate will surely ensue.

Some Newsweek readers have already pointed out their issues with it, like lack of illustrations (rendering books about Frank Lloyd Wright or Michelangelo practically useless) or that ‘glue, ink, and paper’ feel. Other more practical issues are those of cost: like many first-generation models, there are kinks in the woodwork and people will most likely hold out for reworked versions rather than jump to buy their dears a Kindle for this holiday season. Strange, too, their marketing campaign. It hasn’t reached anybody who’s anybody, as far as I can see. In fact, just this morning I received the High-Tech Gift for the Holidays from Amazon and guess what’s not on their Top 20 list?  Right on. Their own Kindle.

In the same vein, but slightly more interesting, is what’s going on in China with digital books. Moshimo Komiga, a twisting tale of high school romance, was composed entirely on a mobile phone by an "avid texter" named Rin. It’s been done before, but now more first-timers are embracing the format. Sounds about right for China, who is gobbling up technology like a starved cat. And not hesitating to put themselves really out there. Out there, as in online. An IAC/JWT study (via CNN Money) showed that Chinese youth are leaping ahead even American youth in their consumption and personal expression through digital channels.

‘Twill be interesting to see what happens as the Tweens – who are actually spending more time on their mobiles, and less time on the Internet than the Teens – grow up and gain more spending power. Mobile marketing may be it. And text readers, combined with mobile phone technology, may be even it-ter.