Aspen, CO, BrainstormTech: Brian McAndrews and Wes Nichols declare the concept of online engagement is only an intermediate metric and does not relate to sales data.

Interpublic's Magna unit has revised its December doomsayer forecast that US ad revenues would decline by 1.3% in 2010 to saying that they'll just be kinda flat. down just 0.1% from last year. View report (pdf).

Online ad revenues, on the other hand, will curve upward: direct online ad spend is projected to jump 12.2%. Local online spending will grow 3.7%, Magna said.

Excluding the effects of the Olympics and local elections, advertising revenue will be $161 billion in 2010, and the entire ad economy will rise 1.4%. And apparently, the worst is over: Q1 will be the last period of decline, the unit said.

Don't bust out the champagne quite yet, but you can start thinking positively now.

It's that time of year again – the time for lists. No, not the kind you check twice. And not even the ones that look back over the past year, picking out all of the best highlights. As much as I enjoyed watching the top global TV spots of 2009, particularly the ones from Finland and India that Americans just will never really "get," it's not the time to look backwards. Let's look forward, to 2010, and the What's-To-Come.

Yes, Turns out, it's SEO (surprise!) , social media marketing (surprise!) and keyword research — wait, really? Yes, keyword research. Apparently, even more people will be getting their kicks on Google Trends, and working with AdWords tools & insights all day in 2010. (That is, according to SEO.com, who released this particular compilation.)

So although other trends were mentioned, like video, conversion web design, paid search, and email marketing, the list is very much dominated by efforts that boost both web traffic AND credibility. Online PR, link building, social media marketing (done right, of course), and blogging were among the predicted continuing trends for next year.

I love it when people use laymen's terms in industry quotes to show people that they're just regular guys/gals. Here's a classic example, from DM News:

I mean, who (besides me, of course) doesn't love secret sauce? It's the new mystery meat.

Let's put this quote in context. Jim is saying just plain web analytics just ain't enough anymore – and it's true. There are so many other data sources to pull from: social media, company websites, customer call centers, and even bricks-and-mortar stores.

Particularly for retail brands, it's important to be able to pull that data together and make sense of it in order to offer customers the best kind of personalization – the kind where you give them what they want without ever having to ask what that actually is.

So yes, get over your Google Analytics, because it's just not good enough anymore. However – I think Google, or at least from what we garner from the text ad below the DMNews article, disagrees. Chiggity check it –>

I have a pair of purple leggings. To the untrained eye, they are heinous: a gratuitous splash of color in a city full of dark jeans, ballet flats, and black crew jackets. But I wear them because I love them, and because I think they're effective – to complete the outfit, that is.

Now turn on the part of the your brain you haven't used since the SATs, or in strenous post-indie-movie conversation, and see the analogy here. Advertisers love their web ads. They love them so much that they're decreasing traditional ad spend and upping their online budgets. But what about consumers? Sure, we've seen studies that talk about the effectiveness of online ads – and that's really what we care about in the end – but what about sentiment?

A new Harris Interactive study (pdf) showed that the majority of consumers get frustrated and annoyed at certain types of online ads, with pop-ups, ads that are “moused over,” difficult-to-close ads, and musical ads as the worst offenders, MarketingCharts reports.

Harris concluded that "the growing
trend toward internet advertising in the face of large numbers of
frustrated consumers may eventually cause a backlash."

What are they going to do? March in the streets? No, worse: they're going to start ignoring web ads altogether – if they've not already done so.

I don't wear the purple wonders to piss people off – and (I would hope) marketers don't run campaigns with annoying ad types to do the same. They, just like everyone else, just want someone to notice them. But what would happen if we all started sporting purple suits? And hats? All day, every day? It's going to get old, and you're going to long for the nice, clean ad inventory of years past.

Isn't this a pretty chart? Thanks, Forrester (via Mediapost).

For the sake of brevity, I'll give you the good news first: Interactive marketing spending will hit $25.6 billion this year, a 11% increase from the $23.1 billion of 2008. 

The figure includes search, email, social media, and mobile marketing
fund-age. Yes, that is a real word – at least according to legendary linguist Pauly Shore.

And now, the better news: spending is expected to more than double to nearly $55 billion by 2014.

Given how quickly social media tools change, we are marveling at the fact that a UK school is now offering a degree program in social media. For a mere $5700, you can learn how to use Facebook,Twitter and more. You will even learn how to write a blog or create a podcast. We do have to give credit where credit is due: at least the university is making money off of social media. The social media companies certainly aren't.

Now if this were a degree in Social Media Marketing, or crowd-sourced product development, we would be all for it. After all, real jobs exist that require those skills. Unfortunately, this course seems more like something designed to give you basic competence in the world. Sort of like learning how to use e-mail.

So what do we have? Coursework that teaches you how to use tools that are easily self-taught, based on technologies that will evolve and may be obsolete by the time you graduate. OK. Good luck with that!

Here at Digital Axle, we like to keep things fair. This means a lot of things: no pushing or shoving in the kitchen, lots of leg space in our conference room for the extra tall people, the right to use or not-use-and-openly-despise Twitter, and early exit for all on Friday afternoons. Provided you are not a lowly minion, of course.

For you, dear blog reader, it means we want to make sure you hear the other side of the internet advertising story. We mostly bombard you with uplifting news about how online ad revenues are growing faster than a Jersey tomato in summer, surpassing other mediums because of its broad (yet targeted!) reach and superior ability to measure ROI. We post eMarketer charts every month whose long red rectangles show the bright future of the industry and its projected revenues.

But not everyone thinks like us. Read this post by Eric Clemons of the Wharton School, "Why Advertising is Failing on the Internet." If nothing else, it will get you thinking about the future — in which we may or may not be wearing shades.

Everybody's doin' it — why aren't you?

Indeed, what is preventing marketing executives from moving more funding into the online space?

eMarketer has the answer, via an iMedia survey: Dependence on traditional
measures, corporate culture, departmental inertia or fear, and a lack of
metrics.

Here's what we have to say about these, in that order. Get over it, get over it, get over it, and whaaat? Online marketing does not provide "enough metrics" for you? Are you joking.

The behavioral advertising debate goes a little like this:

YES, do it! People want personalized ads. According to ChoiceStream,
41% of US Internet users pay more attention to
advertising that was personalized. Some 39% said they were more willing to click on such
personalized ads.

Of course, nonsensical Belgians provide exceptions to this rule. Hans recently asked me, shocked, how does Yahoo know that I want a cheap flight home to Europe? Are they reading my mail? And web pages? That's unacceptable. And I said, well, don't you want one? I mean, would you rather they served you ads for breast enhancement surgery? Okay, Ana, bad example.

Here's the other side: NO, Don't. People – like Hans – can be seriously uncomfortable with website policies that allow behavioral targeting. 57% of respondents in a TNS Global and TRUSTe poll said they were worried about advertisers using their browsing history to serve them relevant ads.

So whatcha gonna do?